Mon. Jun 17th, 2019

The E book That NOAA Ought to Have Revealed: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather

New local weather information reference e book presents information that NOAA doesn’t.

Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Local weather Knowledge (2018 Version) – A E book That NOAA Ought to Have Revealed

Visitor Submit by Bob Tisdale

I’ve simply revealed a brand new e book titled Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather. It’s only out there via Amazon HERE in paperback type (400+ pages, 8½ x 11).  The worth is $57.21.  I’ve no plans to publish an e-book version.

Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather is meant for all U.S. residents who’re severe about their data-based understandings of local weather change within the Contiguous United States as a complete and regionally, and for its particular person 48 states. Additional, even should you don’t agree with the NOAA information, it is best to at the least perceive the tales their information inform.

The supply of the info used to create the graphs in Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather is the NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Heart Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site.

OVERVIEW FROM EXTREMES AND AVERAGES IN CONTIGUOUS U.S. CLIMATE (Brackets embody notes for this weblog put up.)

This e book presents time-series graphs of NOAA local weather information for the USA. Extra particularly, for the 100-year interval of 1919 to 2018, this e book presents time-series comparability graphs of the best of the month-to-month highs per yr and the bottom of the month-to-month lows per yr—the extremes—and in addition the averages per yr for NOAA:

Precipitation (PCP) information (offered in inches),
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) information, and
Close to-surface air temperature (TMAX, TAVG, & TMIN) information (offered in levels Fahrenheit)…

…for the Contiguous United States as a complete, for the 9 NOAA Local weather Areas of the Contiguous United States proven in Determine Overview-1, and for the 48 (contiguous) States individually. The information are offered of their noticed varieties (or calculated type within the case of the drought information), not as anomalies. The extremes and averages had been extracted by MS EXCEL from NOAA month-to-month information from January 1919 to December 2018.

Moreover, there are comparability graphs of the annual cycles in near-surface air temperatures, primarily based on 30-year averages of the month-to-month values—the primary 30 years of that 100-year interval (1919-1948) versus its final 30 years (1989-2018)—for every of the temperature metrics (TAVG, TMIN, and TMAX). These are supplied to indicate readers how the annual cycles in floor temperatures (primarily based on common month-to-month temperatures) have modified between these two time intervals.  These comparability graphs of the annual temperature cycles are supplied for every state, every area and for the Contiguous U.S. as a complete.

One other Characteristic of this e book:

NOAA ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE DATA

After the Introduction, the graph shows start with the changes NOAA has made to the common temperature (TAVG) information for the contiguous United States and for every of the 9 NOAA local weather areas. At their web site, NOAA is open concerning the changes they’ve made to the near-surface air temperature information. This e book could be incomplete with out illustrations of the consequences of these changes.  To that finish, I current graphs that evaluate the present editions and the 1984 editions of the annual imply near-surface air temperature (TAVG) information for the Contiguous United States as a complete and for the 9 NOAA U.S. Local weather areas.  The 1984 editions of the common near-surface air temperature information are being offered as the info earlier than the changes.  These older information had been discovered within the 1984 paper Regional and Nationwide Month-to-month, Seasonal, and Annual Temperature Weighted by Space, 1895-1983 by Karl and Koss. The paper could be discovered right here: (https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/10238).

# # #

After the introductory explanations, the info shows are made with out remark from me.

The NOAA web site that served because the supply of the info on this e book is the NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Heart Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site.

https://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp#

The interval of 1919 to 2018 was chosen for 2 easy causes. First, it covers the final 100 full years of information, and, as such, nobody can realistically declare that I’ve cherry picked the beginning and finish years.  Second, the traits are proven in items per decade, so readers solely should multiply the pattern listed on the graphs by ten to find out how a lot the metric has modified in these 100 years primarily based on the linear pattern.

The 9 NOAA Local weather Areas are proven in Determine Overview-1. They embody:

Northeast Area (contains the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont)
East North Central Area (contains the states of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin)
Central Area (contains the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia)
Southeast Area (contains the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia)
West North Central Area (contains the states of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming)
South Area (contains the states of Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas)
Southwest Area (contains the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)
Northwest (contains the states of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington)
West Area (contains the states of California, and Nevada)

[Reference link for blog post here.]

Determine Overview-1

IMPORTANT NOTE: I’m not and have by no means been an worker of NOAA or some other U.S. authorities company. I’m an impartial local weather researcher and information presenter.  On-line, I’ve been presenting graphs of climate-related information for greater than a decade—hundreds of graphs—at my weblog ClimateObservations and on the World’s Most Seen Website on International Warming and Local weather Change, which is a weblog known as WattsUpWithThat.  [Finish observe.]

The information that serves because the supply for the graphs contained on this e book are recognized on the NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Heart Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site as:

PCP – Precipitation Index
PDSI – Palmer Drought Severity Index
TAVG – Temperature Index
TMIN – Minimal Temperature Index
TMAX – Most Temperature Index

OTHER DATASETS AVAILABLE AT THE NOAA NNDC CDO WEBSITE BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THIS BOOK

For these , along with the datasets listed above which can be offered on this e book, the output pages of the NOAA Local weather Knowledge On-line web site embody quite a few different climate-related datasets, that are listed beneath:

PHDI – Palmer Hydrological Drought Index
ZNDX – Palmer Z-Index
PMDI – Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index
CDD – Cooling Diploma Days
HDD – Heating Diploma Days, and
SPnn – Customary Precipitation Index

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Observe: In the event you haven’t but bought this e book and are studying this overview on-line or in a bookstore, it’s possible you’ll be asking your self, Why ought to I purchase this e book, after I can take a look at climate-data graphs totally free on the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site after which obtain the graphs and associated information for my very own data?

The first motive to purchase this e book as an alternative of going to the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site is that this e book presents local weather extremes in methods the NOAA web site doesn’t. Particularly, the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site doesn’t extract and illustrate the intense values per yr (the best of the month-to-month values per yr and the bottom of the month-to-month values per yr) for the Precipitation information and Palmer Drought Severity Index information as this e book does. Moreover, whereas the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site does present and illustrate month-to-month excessive temperature (TMAX) information and month-to-month low temperature (TMIN) information, it doesn’t extract and present the intense values of these metrics per yr (the best of the month-to-month highs for the TMAX information per yr and the bottom of the month-to-month lows of the TMIN information per yr), however this e book does current them and their linear traits.

[End note.]

Remember that annual averages are primarily based on 12 months of information every year, whereas solely two months per yr are chosen for the annual extremes (one for the best excessive and one for the bottom low), and, as everybody is aware of, there could be massive adjustments in precipitation, drought circumstances, and temperatures each month. Thus, the extremes are essential, and they don’t all the time observe the averages.  That is very true for the temperature extremes, which on this e book are represented by the best month-to-month excessive temperatures per yr and the bottom month-to-month low temperatures per yr, not by the best and lowest values per yr of the common temperatures.

Moreover, adjustments in precipitation, drought severity and near-surface air temperatures differ from NOAA local weather area to NOAA local weather area and from state to state—even neighboring states—in ways in which might shock you.

The Introduction, which follows [not in this blog post], features a full set of graphs primarily based on the info for the Contiguous United States. As a result of they’re essential, I’ve included the graphs for the Contiguous United States once more close to the top of the e book as properly.

By the best way, it was the lack to extract and present the intense values per yr (highest of the month-to-month highs and lowest of the month-to-month lows per yr) in graph type on the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site that prompted me to arrange this assortment of graphs of NOAA information for the contiguous U.S.  Many individuals, like me, are extra fascinated with local weather extremes than they’re in averages.

In my expertise, the NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Heart Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site is far quicker than the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site, the latter of which could be very sluggish at occasions…so sluggish it discourages efforts to review local weather information.  The NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Heart Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site labored shortly (inside seconds) every time I clicked on Submit, and it offered all datasets on one textual content output sheet, which drastically shortened my data-download time whereas making ready this e book.

My apologies to the residents of Alaska and Hawaii, however the NOAA web site used because the supply of information for this e book doesn’t provide information for Hawaii, and the info are incomplete for Alaska through the interval of 1919 to 2018.

[END OF OVERVIEW PREVIEW]

SAMPLE GRAPHS

The next are examples of the 6 graphs offered in Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather for the Contiguous United States as a complete, for every of the 9 NOAA local weather areas that make up the Contiguous U.S., and for every of the 48 Contiguous U.S. states individually.  The examples are for the State of Vermont.

Why did I exploit Vermont for the samples? I didn’t need to be accused of cherry-picking examples to assist a perspective, and the info for Vermont didn’t current something extraordinary both manner.

The numbering of the pattern graphs coincides with the numbering of the datasets on the NOAA NNDC CDO web site, which is the supply of the info for the graphs offered in Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather.   The lettering was chosen by me and stays fixed all through the shows.

Determine-43a

# # #

Determine-43b

# # #

Determine-43c

# # #

Determine-43d

# # #

Determine-43e

# # #

Determine-43f

# # #

An instance of a graph that presents the TAVG information and corresponding traits earlier than and after NOAA made changes to them could be seen in Determine Outdated v Present TAVG Knowledge-6, which is for the NOAA South local weather area. The South local weather area contains the States of Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas. Within the e book, these comparability graphs are supplied for every of the 9 NOAA local weather areas of the Contiguous U.S. and for the Contiguous U.S. as a complete, and so they cowl the interval of 1919 (the beginning yr of the graphs on this e book) to 1983 (the final full yr of information from the 1984 NOAA paper Regional and Nationwide Month-to-month, Seasonal, and Annual Temperature Weighted by Space, 1895-1983 by Karl and Koss, which is the supply of the older TAVG information.

Determine Outdated v Present TAVG Knowledge-6

Just like the samples above for Vermont, I chosen the South area for this instance as a result of it didn’t present something extraordinary, both manner. That’s, the South area is near middle-of-the-road primarily based on the impacts of the NOAA changes to the TAVG linear traits throughout this era.  Then again, for the interval of 1919-1983, out of the 9 NOAA local weather areas of the contiguous U.S., the South area has the smallest (downward) offset in TAVG temperature between the older version information and the present (adjusted) version, solely -Zero.eight deg F, with the older version information subtracted from present.

Moreover, for the interval of 1919-1983, and for the contiguous U.S. and its 9 NOAA local weather areas, this e book additionally contains (1) a comparability graph of the variations between the traits of the outdated and present TAVG information, with the older information subtracted from the present information, and (2) a desk that, for every area and the contiguous U.S. as a complete, exhibits (a) the traits of the TAVG information earlier than and after the changes together with their variations and (b) the common TAVG temperatures and offset in TAVG temperatures for the interval of earlier than and after the changes, once more with the older information subtracted from the present information.

In the event you’ve assumed NOAA’s changes to the TAVG information have impacted all areas equally, you’ve assumed incorrectly.

# # #

ONE GRAPH PER PAGE

As famous within the opening paragraph of this put up, Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather is greater than 400 pages lengthy, and it’s printed on eight ½ x 11 paper. Why 400+ pages? For the graph shows of the NOAA information, every graph is offered on a separate web page, with sufficient area within the margins on your hand-written notes.  See Photograph-1.

Photograph-1 (Click on to Enlarge)

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A FEW NOTES FROM THE INTRODUCTION ABOUT THE GRAPHS

…not all areas and states present three quasi-parallel pattern traces for the common and two extremes of their respective Palmer Drought Severity Index information like these proven in [Figure 43b for this blog post].

You’ll observe on the extremes and common comparability graphs that I’ve additionally left the trend-line equations created by MS EXCEL. That was performed for 2 causes.  First, some readers might need to calculate the values of the pattern traces at any yr from 1919 to 2018, and the traits line equations will enable them to take action.  Second, together with the pattern line equations on the graphs helps to guarantee readers that the traits I listed in color-coded boldface are the traits calculated by MS EXCEL.  You’ll additionally observe that the values of the traits within the EXCEL trend-line equations are offered per yr, however I checklist them on the graphs as per decade.

# # #

If isolating the best and lowest Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) information per yr from the common per yr is new to you, take into account this: (1) the best annual PDSI information is beneficial for evaluating wettest intervals, and, (2) the bottom annual PDSI information is beneficial for evaluating driest drought intervals.

# # #

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT TRENDS

For the Precipitation (PCP) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) information, don’t count on that the traits for annual maximums and minimums to common out to equal the pattern for the annual averages. The annual averages take into account 12 months per yr, whereas the annual maximums and minimums look at just one month every per yr.

Equally, don’t count on the pattern for the annual common temperature (TAVG) information to equal the common of (1) the pattern of the annual highest of the excessive temperatures (that are extracted from the TMAX information) and (2) the pattern of the annual lowest of the low temperatures (that are extracted from the TMIN information). The annual common of the TAVG information considers 12 months per yr, whereas the annual most of the TMAX information and annual minimal of the TMIN information look at just one month every per yr.

# # #

The information furnished at that NOAA NNDC CDO web site don’t embody uncertainties, so uncertainties should not proven on the graphs on this e book.  That’s in keeping with the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site, which additionally excludes uncertainties with the traits it presents. See the pattern output graph from the NOAA Local weather at a Look web site in Determine Intro-19 to substantiate that they don’t embody uncertainties of their graphs there.

Determine Intro-19

CURIOSITIES

There are a variety of curiosities within the NOAA information offered in Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather. Prime examples exist within the annual cycle comparability graphs for the Minimal Temperature (TMIN) information for 3 states: New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. (A pattern of that sort of graph is proven above in Determine 43e.)  Usually, for each 30-year intervals, the common February TMIN temperature is noticeably increased than the January TMIN temperature.  However, for these three states, through the early 30-year interval of 1919-1948, the January and February TMIN temperatures are so shut, the graph’s curve between them seems to be flat.  In different phrases, for the interval of 1919-1948, the 30-year averages of the intense low temperatures for these three states had been very comparable in January and February. In a few weeks, I’ll put together a weblog put up about that prolonged lowest-of-the-low TMIN temperatures phenomenon.

DATA HAVE BEEN ARCHIVED

Simply in case there are noticeable adjustments to the info on the NOAA Nationwide Knowledge Heart Local weather Knowledge On-line (NNDC CDO) web site sooner or later, I’ve uploaded to one of many on-line archives all the NOAA NNDC CDO information pages I relied on after I ready the graphs for this e book.

PLEASE DO NOT COPY ANY OF THE GRAPHS FROM THIS BOOK FOR ANY REASON

Sufficient stated on that topic.

The exceptions to that request, after all, are the graphs that had been offered on this put up and solely these graphs.

CLOSING TO POST

In 2018, I additionally ready an e-book for these of you curious about:

the variety of hurricanes that make landfall right here within the continental United States,
the variety of tornados that landing within the Contiguous U.S.,
flood information for the states, and
wildfire information, too.

I made these information shows in my Kindle e-book quick story titled Dad, Is Local weather Getting Worse in the USA?.  The subtitle of that quick story is E book 2 within the DAD, WHY ARE YOU A GLOBAL WARMING DENIER? Series.

I think a lot of you might be pondering that Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather would make a fantastic reward for politicians who sound very confused about local weather change right here in the USA…and in addition for relations and pals for a similar motive.  I agree.

Once more, Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather could be bought via Amazon HERE in paperback type (400+ pages, eight ½ x 11).

Thanks very a lot to those that have bought or will buy Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Local weather.

Regards,

Bob Tisdale

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